ESPN is reporting that Stephen Strasburg’s advisor, the infamous Scott Boras, has said that Strasburg’s contract should be “special” because he thinks he’s among the premium 1% of picks that have a better track record of major league success.
The previous record for a draftee contract is Mark Prior, who received $10.5 million in 2001. Prior was on the fast track to success and even had one very good year in the majors before he broke down with injuries. He hasn’t played in a major league game in 2 years. The irony with Boras’ statement is that Strasburg has one major negative in common with Mark Prior: they both have an “inverted W” in their delivery that many claim should raise a red flag regarding future injuries. Strasburg might have some “plus-plus” major league pitches, but he’s also a huge injury risk. Getting pitchers to change their delivery while maintaining their “special stuff” has proven easier said than done.
I’ve heard about once-in-a-generation pitching prospects before. We were told that Ben McDonald was the type of pitcher who would change the game back when he was drafted in 1989. He finished his career 8 years later with a 78-70 record. Hardly game-changing. In 1991 Brien Taylor was supposed to turn the struggling Yankees system around with a fastball better than Nolan Ryan’s. He never made it past lower minor league ball after signing a contract worth a then-record $1.55 million. His advisor: Scott Boras. The last anyone in the media contact Taylor they found out he was living with his parents, working as a bricklayer and making $909 a month (according to child support records). He was just the second #1 overall pick ever to not make it to the majors.
I’m not saying that Stephen Strasburg is going to end up like Brien Taylor. Strasburg actually went to college and faced real D1 competition, which is a lot different than snot-nosed 16-18 year olds you’ll face playing high school ball. I’m just saying that the Nationals should be careful about paying major league money (akin to the $50 million the Red Sox paid just to talk to Daisuke Matsuzaka) for a guy that is unproven in the major leagues who could just as easily fail miserably as he could become a hall of famer. I’ll leave the scouting to the scouts, and Boras should as well when he’s “advising” Strasburg in contract negotiations. Scott Boras has had many failures among his list of “special” players, and what they all have in common is that win or lose they end up paying a cut to Scott Boras.
